Gold: 'Triple Tops' Seldom Work - Could This Time Be Different?
Gold bulls always feel the yellow metal doesn’t get due love or honor in a haven universe where the dollar has become a parallel. Bears in the game feel the lustrous bars stored in central bank vaults across the world are overrated. The truth is probably somewhere in between.
The tug-of-war over gold has gotten a lot more intense in the two weeks since Hamas gunmen paraglided their way into Israel on Oct. 7 to start a rampage that has had the entire world convulsing.
Gold’s response to the latest conflagration in the Middle East began predictably, in the same way it had been reacting to most geopolitical events of the past decade: Slow and steady, to the point of being boring.
But along the way, the market exploded as the death toll and retribution promised by Jerusalem over the invasion turned out to be more than the world expected.
As the crisis enters its 18th day at the time of writing, it’s clear the Israelis have little appetite for diplomacy or for that matter anything other than fulfilling their pledge of exterminating Hamas once and for all from Gaza. T
he only thing holding them back from a full land-based assault of the territory is the estimated 200 Jewish hostages or so in Palestinian hold, that the United States and other world powers are negotiating to get back.
The politics aside, both the bears and bulls seem astounded at how gold has embraced its safe-haven role in the conflict, leaving the dollar in the dust, as New York-traded futures of the yellow metal went from mid-$1,800 an ounce to $1,900, $1,950 and finally $2,000 on Friday.
In fact, most technical charts are indicating that spot gold will run to $2,010 at least and $2,080 on the high end.
Craig Erlam, analyst at online trading platform
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