
Goldman sets tone for Q1 earnings season. How markets react is key.
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.Goldman Sachs might have provided an early preview of market reaction to the first quarter earnings season, which in turn could be a warning to investors looking for outsize profit growth to offset the renewed risks tied to the U.S. war with Iran.The Wall Street titan on Monday posted a massive surge in first quarter profits, thanks in part to record stock trading revenue and a near doubling in investment banking fees, and solid gains from its asset management division.But its bottom line growth rate of 19%, in terms of overall profits, dwarfed the 6.5% rate at which Goldman topped Wall Street’s headline earnings estimate, suggesting investors had already priced a large amount of the bank’s performance into its stock price heading into Monday’s update.Shares in the group, in fact, were last marked 3.5% lower in early Monday trading, dragging both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 lower along the way.Deutsche Bank strategists, led by Binky Chanda, think this could be a theme that repeats itself throughout the whole of the first quarter reporting season.Across Wall Street, analysts are looking for headline earnings growth of around 14%, a rate that would take collective S&P 500 profits to just over $605 billion.
That’s a $7 billion improvement from early forecasts. An even firmer advance of 20% is expected over the three months ending in June.But those impressive figures are likely already reflected in the benchmark’s resilience, and the fact that despite a worrying surge in global oil prices, hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and fading GDP estimates, the S&P 500 ended last week with a year to date decline of just 0.6%.“Despite continued strong earnings growth the
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