Government must work to restore faith in Indian statistics
Fostering trust in institutions is one of the cornerstones of ensuring enduring belief in democratic systems. India’s statistical systems and infrastructure, despite its numerous warts, had a place of pride in the Indian democratic ethos and informed policymaking. But the standards of – and the lack of investments in – the official statistics collection machinery over the years have left a lot to be desired.
As the 2024 Lok Sabha elections draw near, the debate on the quality of official statistics will come into sharp focus once again. The ongoing debate on the number of Indians exiting poverty is one area in which the quality and availability of official statistics will matter not just for policymaking, but also for electoral campaigns. This week Niti Aayog released a 411-page report claiming that 135 million Indians exited ‘multidimensional poverty’ between 2015-16 and 2019-21.
According to the report, the proportion of Indians classified as ‘poor’ almost halved from 24.85% in 2015-16 to 14.96% in 2019-21. This drastic reduction is certainly a matter of pride for Indians. But scepticism about Niti Aayog’s report could stem from the timing of its release, ahead of a string of assembly polls and the general election.
Even if one were to put that down to coincidence, past questions about the utility or credibility of an MPI are likely to resurface. The MPI, devised in 2010 by the Human Development Report Office of the United Nations Development Programme and the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative, derives its conclusions from a basket of developmental elements, each allocated a specific weight. The basket has three broad categories: health (nutrition and child mortality), education (years of schooling,
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