Here's everything you need to know about the Fed decision coming Wednesday
This week's Federal Reserve meeting is not much about the present but potentially very much about the future.
If things go according to expectations, policymakers again will keep short-term interest rates on hold roughly from where they've been the past year.
However, with a raft of cooperating inflation data under their belts in recent months, central bankers are widely expected to lay the groundwork for interest rate cuts to begin in September. Just how aggressive they are in spreading those breadcrumbs is the main question markets will be looking to answer.
«Our expectation is that they're going to keep rates unchanged,» said Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede. «But there's going to be a lot of focus on the [post-meeting] statement, perhaps teeing up September as whatever the opposite of liftoff is.»
Market pricing currently indicates an absolute certainty that the Fed will approve its first reduction in more than four years — when it meets Sept. 17-18. The central bank has kept its benchmark funds rate in a range of 5.25-%-5.5% for the past year. The rate indicates what banks charge each other for overnight lending but sets a guidepost for a slew of other consumer debt products.
As for this week's meeting, which concludes Wednesday, traders are assigning a very small possibility of a cut. However, there are expectations that the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee will drop signals that as long as there are no major data hiccups, a September move is very much on the table.
Reynolds thinks the committee, along with Chair Jerome Powell at his news conference, will want to keep its options at least somewhat open.
«They're going to want to strike a balance. They don't want
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