Hindalco’s EBITDA per tonne trajectory will keep on improving: Aditya Welekar, Axis Securities

economictimes.indiatimes.com:

Aditya Welekar, AVP, Axis Securities, says the “Hindalco project will earn a higher EBITDA per tonne as compared to the existing $525 per tonne. This project will earn $700 plus per tonne EBITDA per tonne. So, as and when it comes online, that will be value accretive, but that is far away from now because the project will take 15 to 18 months to ramp up from the date of commissioning in the second half of CY2026.”
How are two factors – cost overrun and also delay in commissioning of project — are going to change your view on Hindalco and secondly, don’t you think that because of the delay in commissioning of this project, the aluminium cycle which has been on an uptrend so far could reverse by the time the plant actually starts?
Aditya Welekar: The support of aluminium prices will be there. Indian operations will be doing better. The only overhang will be because of that capex intensity at the project, but at the same time they have also indicated levers at EBITDA per tonne reaching to $600 per tonne at Novelis and that looks kind of achievable because as they move forward, prices will reset at a higher level for Novelis and their recycling percentage and automotive share in the total product mix will also increase in future.

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So, EBITDA per tonne trajectory will keep