Six years after Donald Trump started the first trade war with China, the US president-elect has named a series of China hawks to his administration and threatened 60% tariffs on Chinese goods, a level that would decimate trade between the two countries. The dilemma for China now is that its sizable trade surplus with the US means any direct countermeasures may have limited impact.
China has already shown a willingness to use some asymmetrical steps against tariffs and trade restrictions from both the Trump and Biden administrations. Should the new threats become policy, Beijing may have to reach further into its arsenal, risking a conflict that could be even harder to contain.
“Simple trade wars and reciprocal countermeasures cannot adequately address future China-US differences,” said Wang Wen, executive dean of Renmin University’s Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies.
The alternatives available to Beijing won’t necessarily make China itself immune from the fallout, a worry for an economy already mired in a prolonged property crisis.
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