How Musk’s visit to China could unlock Tesla’s next big growth driver
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.Tesla’s stock rose early, then fell, then rose again on Wednesday as CEO Elon Musk heads to China.Shares of the electric-vehicle maker traded up early, then dropped to as low as $430.21 before rising to $445.27, up 2.7% on the day, while the S&P 500 gained 0.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%Tesla shares fell 2.6% on Tuesday, snapping a four-day winning streak that raised Tesla stock more than 14%. One thing sending shares higher was the hope that Tesla was close to receiving approval to sell its Full Self Driving, or FSD, driver-assistance product in China.Americans can pay $99 a month for FSD.
In April, Tesla reported 1.3 million FSD subscriptions at the end of the first quarter, up from about 850,000 a year ago. A Chinese FSD launch would represent some AI progress at Tesla, which has pinned its future on AI applications such as FSD, robo-taxis, and humanoid robots.The importance of progress for Tesla shares shouldn’t be understated.
Tesla is driven by narrative/sentiment, not fundamentals,” wrote UBS analyst Joseph Spak in a recent report, adding that Tesla’s first-quarter earnings report reinforced the AI narrative.“On the one hand, we got a number of roadmap updates…However, this is where numbers start to add some gravity as physical AI is expensive,” added Spak. Tesla is planning to spend $25 billion on CapEx in 2026, up from less than $9 billion in 2025.
Spak expects capital spending to remain elevated for years. “Tesla’s physical AI ventures offer large potential revenue opportunities, but could take a while to get there.”Now, Musk and his AI ambitions are in China, after tweeting that he was aboard Air Force One early on Wednesday.He will be joined in China by a
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