How to make a success of peace talks with Vladimir Putin

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. FOR TWO years the war in Ukraine has been fought metre by blood-soaked metre. Suddenly, dramatic change is at hand.

One reason is that Russia’s grinding advance has exposed grave weaknesses in manpower and morale that could eventually lead to a collapse in Ukraine’s lines. More urgent, Donald Trump has made clear that, as president, he will be impatient for the shooting to stop. The great worry is that Mr Trump will impose a disastrous deal on Ukraine.

Vladimir Putin says he might be willing to freeze the front lines, though Russia occupies just 70-80% of four Ukrainian provinces it has annexed. But he is also demanding that the West should lift sanctions; that Ukraine should renounce NATO membership; that it be demilitarised and formally neutral; that it “denazify" itself by jettisoning its leaders; and that it protect the rights of Russian-speakers. Should Mr Trump back this, Mr Putin would have achieved most of his war aims and Ukraine would have suffered a catastrophic defeat.

What is more, Russia’s president would not respect a piece of paper. He would hope that post-war Ukraine, consumed by infighting and recriminations against the West, would fall into his lap. If it did not, he might seize more territory by force.

As the self-appointed guardian of Ukraine’s Russian-speakers, he could easily concoct a pretext. That is the fear. But it is not inevitable, nor even the likeliest outcome.

Capitulation to Mr Putin would be a public defeat for America and Mr Trump. It would spill over into Asia, where America’s foes might become more aggressive and its friends might lose confidence in their ally and curry favour with China instead. And Mr Trump would surely want to avoid the