How Trump’s tariff threats might impact the U.S. Fed’s interest rates

globalnews.ca:

A top policymaker at the U.S. Federal Reserve said Wednesday that he still supports cutting interest rates this year, despite elevated inflation and the prospect of widespread tariffs under the incoming Trump administration.

Christopher Waller, an influential member of the Fed’s board of governors, said he expects inflation will move closer to the Fed’s 2% target in the coming months. And in some of the first comments by a Fed official specifically about tariffs, he said that greater import duties likely won’t push up inflation this year.

“My bottom-line message is that I believe more cuts will be appropriate,” Waller said in Paris at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

“If, as I expect, tariffs do not have a significant or persistent effect on inflation, they are unlikely to affect my view,” Waller added.

His remarks are noteworthy because the impact of tariffs is a key wild card for the economy this year. Waller also suggested he is more optimistic about inflation than many Wall Street investors, who increasingly expect the Fed to keep its rate steady this year as elevated prices continue to linger.

“I believe that inflation will continue to make progress toward our 2% goal over the medium term and that further (rate) reductions will be appropriate,” Waller said. While inflation has been persistent in recent months — it ticked up to 2.4% in November, according to the Fed’s preferred measure — Waller argued that outside of housing, which is difficult to measure, prices are cooling.

Waller’s remarks run counter to increasing expectations on Wall Street that the Fed may not cut its key rate much, if at all, this year. It is currently about 4.3% after several reductions last year from a two-decade