How Will Bitcoin Perform in June? Here Is What History Tells Us
Bitcoin is on course to close May down a little over 7%, marking the first negative month for the world’s largest cryptocurrency since last December.
The drop would also mark BTC’s worst month since the collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX triggered a 16% price drop last November.
But a 7% drop in May is an improvement on its May 2021 and 2022 performances, when Bitcoin lost 35.38% and 15.56% respectively.
Bitcoin was last trading down around 2.0% on Wednesday, weighed by a combination of macro headwinds as the US dollar rises on stronger-than-expected US job openings data and hawkish Fed speak, as well as technical selling.
Bitcoin recent rejected a test of its 50-Day Moving Average and confirmed a downtrend from the April/early May highs, with technicians subsequently calling for a retest of recent sub-$26,000 lows.
History tells us that June is, on average, June is Bitcoin’s worst month for price appreciation throughout the year.
Since 2011, Bitcoin has “only” appreciated at a rate of around 7% in June, with only September and August seeing a weaker average appreciation.
More concerning is the fact that, in the last three years, Bitcoin has experienced an average price drop in June of 15.6%.
While expecting a more than 15% price drop in June might be a bit excessive, chart analysis suggests that price risks remain tilted to the downside in the upcoming month.
The above chart analysis suggests that Bitcoin is in a medium-term downtrend and recent shifts in the macro environment suggest that this downtrend is warranted.
In recent weeks, US jobs, service sector (PMI) and inflation data have remained stronger/hotter than expected, pushing back against the idea that the Fed is done with rate hikes.
Meanwhile, strong data and
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