
Howard Marks backs fixed income as bonds yield 7%, private credit up to 11%
Howard Marks, Co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, during his Mumbai visit, believes fixed-income investments are now highly competitive, with high-yield bonds offering returns of 7% and private credit reaching up to 11%.
"High yield bonds are at 7%, other strategies are at 7%, maybe as high as 8%, private credit at 9-11%," he noted, reinforcing the case for fixed income as an alternative to equities.
He noted that while the current Fed funds rate stands at 4.5%, its historical average over the past 70 years has been around 4.9%.
According to Marks, the prolonged low-rate environment from 2009 to 2021 made credit investments unattractive. However, with rates rising, fixed-income investments are offering compelling returns.
Marks also referenced Goldman Sachs’ recent projection that the S&P 500 will return just 3% annually over the next decade and then pointed to data from JP Morgan, stating that when the S&P 500 is bought at a P/E ratio similar to today’s 22+, historical returns over the following decade have ranged between 2% and -2% per year, «no exceptions.»
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