‘I can’t see it getting any better’: could the UK be heading for a recession?

theguardian.com:

These are worrying times for Claire Tasker’s jewellery business. With soaring living costs putting acute pressure on households across the country, the Hertfordshire-based goldsmith has seen first-hand how consumers are cutting back.

“If people haven’t got money to spend then it’s items like mine they’re not really going to think about buying any more,” says the small business owner, who sells her handmade fine jewellery from her home studio in Hitchin.

It’s not only that sales are under pressure. The cost of gold, silver, copper and gems used to make her wares has risen dramatically, too.

“I can’t see it getting any better,” Tasker says. “The cost of living is affecting me, too. There’s the stress of trying to make money, and it’s worrying being self-employed. You don’t have a steady income.”

What Tasker is experiencing in Hitchin is a microcosm of the broader economy. Inflation has been rising since last summer and there were already signs of the post-Covid recovery faltering even before Vladimir Putin ordered his troops into Ukraine. The economy expanded by only 0.1% in February and retail sales fell by more than expected in March.

In April, cost of living pressures intensified. The average energy bill has increased by £700 a year; Rishi Sunak has raised taxes; motoring costs have gone up. The biggest squeeze on living standards since the 1950s has resulted in consumers becoming gloomier and far less willing to spend in the shops.

As far as experts are concerned, the question is not whether the economy will slow down but whether it is time to start mentioning the R word: recession. David Blanchflower, a former member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, is in no doubt. “Every piece of evidence suggests that