Rohit Srivastava, Founder & Market Strategist, Indiacharts.com, says “if you look at both daily and weekly charts, the smallcap index has like an 86 reading on the daily chart, it can appear high. But in extended moves, these readings can remain there for a prolonged period of time. So I will give it a while. I think there is a need for some kind of a pullback which may not happen immediately. So I will push it forward till the largecaps really catch up.”
We are headed to 20,000 but it looks like we have hit a break as far as the last 1-2 hours are concerned. Do you still believe that the rally to 20,000 is intact and likely to happen in September itself?
Yes, that remains my view. In the short-term intraday, we are just going to be watching 19,530. What is important about 19,530 is not just the 20-hour average but also if we take the last two highs from where the market sold off and drew a trend line, that support also comes in at around 19,530. That is sort of a breakout point that will get retested between 19,530 and 19,520.
Once you do that, we should see the upward trend really resume. 20,000 remains on the cards. One reason to consider September to actually end up being a good month is because August was weaker than normal. A lot of people are trying to look at seasonality. But what you also need to see is that when seasonal trends break, then it can change for a couple of months. We saw that change in August. August is usually flattish but it ended up being a deep cut.