IMD to forecast monsoon arrival at block level to help farmers plan sowing

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is rolling out an artificial-intelligence-powered system to predict the arrival of the southwest monsoon at the sub-district level, an upgrade from the national and state-level forecasting that has kept farmers unsure about when to plant their crops.Meanwhile, IMD will make the all-important announcement about the onset of the southwest monsoon on Thursday.IMD will provide block-level monsoon onset forecasts at least 10 days in advance, covering more than 3,000 sub-districts across 16 states, including Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh. The system draws on AI-based models, extended-range prediction tools, and statistical techniques to generate probabilistic forecasts and will disseminate alerts through mobile applications, SMS, and local agricultural extension networks."The AI-enabled monsoon advance forecasting system will provide probabilistic forecasts of monsoon progression," said Jitendra Singh, minister of Earth Sciences.Singh said the system combines AI-based forecasting models, extended-range prediction systems, and statistical techniques to provide operationally useful forecasts for agricultural planning and preparedness.IMD, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, and National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) have jointly developed the systems.IMD has already forecast a below-normal monsoon this year, about 92% of the long-period average, raising concerns for the farm sector, which remains mostly rain-dependent.