Import squeeze, not demand boom, drives India’s steel export shift

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. India turned a net exporter of finished steel during April–December 2025 after a sharp fall in imports following government curbs, according to a Ministry of Steel report reviewed by Mint. The decline in imports narrowed the gap between inbound and outbound shipments, allowing the country to swing into a net exporter position after years when cheap steel inflows had raised concerns over the profitability of domestic producers.

During the nine-month period, India exported 4.79 million tonnes (mt) of finished steel, up 33% from 3.60 mt a year earlier. Imports fell 37% to 4.65 mt from 7.42 mt in the same period last year. The gap has narrowed largely through policy measures such as quality control orders and safeguard duties.

Between April and November 2025, India was a marginal net importer by just 0.01 mt, with imports at 4.19 mt and exports at 4.18 mt. The turnaround has been largely policy-led rather than demand-driven, experts say. “While the current data shows a near balance between imports and exports, this is more a result of restricted imports than a surge in demand-led exports, and the sustainability of this balance remains uncertain," said Dhruv Goel, chief executive officer of commodities market intelligence firm BigMint.

Imports fell after the government imposed safeguard duties to discourage cheap shipments. Vietnamese mills—key suppliers to Indian traders—also lost mandatory Indian quality certifications, leading to a further decline in inflows, Goel said. On 30 December, the government imposed a staggered safeguard duty of 12% on select steel products, which will fall to 11.5% in the second year and 11% in the third year.