In a fragile world, how anti-fragile is your portfolio?
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.On that ordinary Monday morning, nothing felt unusual. Nikhil finished his pranayama, walked Misha, his three-year-old Husky, and switched on the coffee machine to enjoy his morning brew. Then, he opened his laptop to check his mail.
He saw the subject line and froze.By the time the sun shone through the window, it seemed like dusk had set on Nikhil’s career. In one fell swoop, several thousand people in India were laid off with immediate effect by a leading technology company. For those who received the mail, it felt like the floor had caved in.
Rarely does life follows a linear, predictable path. All seems to be going well when suddenly a job loss, health emergency, market crash, war or death can throw life akilter.A few years ago, I read Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder by the renowned mathematician and statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Taleb points out that merely striving for resilience during adversity is not enough.
Rather, one must aspire for anti-fragility. Resilience keeps systems sustainable and functional during disruptions.However, anti-fragile systems benefit from shock and disorder. Instead of sustaining or surviving, such systems prosper because chaos can create opportunities, and a completive advantage for the anti-fragile.
“Fragile breaks under stress. Robust resists stress. Anti-fragile benefits from stress,” affirmed Taleb.Most portfolios are built on the assumption that the world is mostly stable.
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