INDIA can be a game-changer in 2024, the contest just became more interesting

economictimes.indiatimes.com:

INDIA, the coalition of 26 opposition parties, has shown the potential to be a game-changer in the 2024 general elections and has woken up the BJP-led NDA from its slumber. With the NDA graduating from largely ignoring its partners to sending overtures and expanding the alliance to 38 parties, the era of coalition politics appears to have returned to Indian politics. It is now amply clear that the next Lok Sabha elections will be fought between two coalitions- one led by the Congress and the other the BJP- in a bipolar polity.

However, the approach and USPs of the two major parties are completely different from each other. BJP will need its allies- many of whom have no presence in the Lower House- for a more micro and limited use where these caste-based smaller parties can help it get the numbers in constituencies where they have influence. INDIA is primarily a conglomeration of regional parties that have sway over one or more states.

Yet, the fate of INDIA will depend significantly on the way Congress performs in the 2024 elections vis-à-vis BJP. In 2014, Congress and BJP were in a direct contest in 189 seats and the saffron party won 166 of these. In 2019, they were in a direct contest in 192 seats of which BJP won 176.

This shows BJP has a strike rate of above 85% against the Congress. The contest between BJP and Congress in 2024 in states like Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand will be interesting this time. In Gujarat, Congress is still lost in the woods.