India CPI inflation preview: April CPI inflation likely to stay below 5%; core inflation may ease further
3 key reasons why RBI will not cut rates this year: Elara Capital In its last policy meeting in April, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das highlighted concerns over food price uncertainties even as he expressed optimism that a record rabi wheat production would help ease price pressure. Moreover, the prospects of a normal monsoon are expected to augur well for the kharif season. Brokerage firm Nirmal Bang expects CPI inflation to come in at 4.91 per cent in April 2024.
Food and beverage inflation is likely to increase, led by higher prices of fruits and vegetables, even as cereal inflation is abating. "CPI food and beverage inflation is seen at 8.2 per cent in April versus 7.7 per cent in March. Core CPI inflation is expected to sustain its moderating trend and is seen at 2.97 pert cent in April versus 3.2 per cent in March," said Nirmal Bang.
Also Read: RBI rate cuts now ‘off the table’ in FY25, says Morgan Stanley Amit Goel, the co-founder and chief global strategist at Pace 360, believes India's retail inflation is poised to continue its slowdown in April due to widespread cooling in prices across food and core goods. "Consumer Price Index (CPI) might have risen by 4.80 per cent year on year in April, down from a 4.85 per cent increase in March, marking the fourth consecutive month of milder CPI readings. Food inflation is expected to decrease for the second consecutive month, dropping to 7.2 per cent in April from 7.7 per cent in March.
Core inflation is likely to decrease to 3.2 per cent from 3.3 per cent in March," said Goel. "This downward trajectory may prompt the RBI to transition to a dovish stance in June, followed by the initiation of a rate-cutting cycle in August. The RBI's dovish stance, potentially leading to
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