India’s FPI cash outflows are nearing a record. Crude is the trigger
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.Since the start of the West Asia war and the sharp 44% rise in crude oil prices, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have been steadily selling Indian shares, pushing total outflows in less than five months close to last year’s record level.FPIs have sold cash shares worth ₹2.28 trillion in calendar 2025 through 11 May — just ₹120 billion short of the record ₹2.4 trillion secondary market outflows seen in the whole of 2025, according to depository and exchange data.Of this, ₹1.85 trillion — over four-fifths of total outflows — came between March and 11 May alone, underscoring investor concerns about the impact of elevated crude on India’s macroeconomic fundamentals and corporate earnings if the war drags on.Recognizing the economic threat from sustained high oil prices, Prime Minister Narendra Modi reiterated an appeal to citizens to conserve fuel and curb gold purchases on Monday.The West Asia war, which began on 28 February, has lifted crude 44% to $104 a barrel as of 11 May.With India importing around 90% of its daily crude requirement of 5.5 million barrels, the oil shock threatens to widen the current account deficit.The pressure is visible in the currency markets.
Since 28 February, the rupee has depreciated 4.75% to 95.31 against the dollar as of Monday."With the Strait of Hormuz chokehold impacting 10% of the roughly 104 million barrels of global supply daily, crude is being bid for at higher prices on the high seas than what we see on the trading terminals," Sanjeev Prasad, MD and co-head of Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE), told Mint in an earlier interaction.If oil remains above $100 a barrel beyond mid-May, against KIE’s base case of $85 for FY27, India’s current account
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