'India's GDP estimate made by IMF consistently INACCURATE', former CEA Subramanian hits back

livemint.com:

Indian economy could grow at 8 per cent till 2047, while the IMF distanced itself from Subramanian's growth projections of Indian economy. On Saturday, Subramanian hit back at the Washington-based financial body saying the staff at the International Monetary Fund has consistently been ‘INACCURATE’ about India's growth estimates during hid tenure at IMF. “During my tenure at IMFNews (since Nov-22), IMF staff’s estimate of India’s growth rate has been consistently INACCURATE," the IMF official wrote in a post on X (formerly Twitter).

Subramanian claimed that he made accurate predictions about India's growth rate, saying “While India’s growth has been >7%, IMF staff estimates have all been <7%. I've made accurate predictions." For September 2021, Subramanian predicted more than 7 per cent growth for India this decade. The actual growth rate was 9.7 per cent in FY 2021-22, 7 per cent in FY 2023-24, 7.6 per cent estimated in FY 2024-25.

In contrast, the IMF staff anticipated 6.1 per cent in November 2022 for the financial year 2023-24. They further lowered it to 5.9 per cent last April, and again estimated India's growth figures at 6.3 per cent in November 2023, he said. He then flagged the IMF staff's “HUGE" error margins in Indian GDP estimates, that is, 1.9 per cent in November 2022 and January 2023, 2.1 per cent in April 2023, and 1.7 per cent in November 2023.