India's wholesale inflation quickens to 2.38% in February from 2.31% in January

wholesale inflation quickened to 2.38 per cent in February on an annual basis, as against 2.31 per cent in January, government data showed on Monday.

As per data released by the centre earlier this month, India’s retail inflation eased to a seven-month low of 3.61% in February, down from 4.31% in January. The decline was largely driven by lower food prices, with food inflation—comprising nearly half of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket—falling to 3.75% in February from 5.97% in January.

ALSO READ:India’s retail inflation eases to a seven-month low of 3.61% in Feb, thanks to cooling food prices

RBI’s outlook on inflation

In its February meeting, the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) noted that inflation had declined, driven by a favorable outlook on food prices. The central bank expects inflation to moderate further in the fiscal year 2025-26, providing relief to Indian households.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), under the leadership of new Governor Sanjay Malhotra, is tasked with keeping inflation within the target range of 2-6%. For FY26, the central bank has projected an overall inflation rate of 4.2%. The inflation projections for the four quarters of FY26 are as follows: Q1 at 4.5%, Q2 at 4.0%, Q3 at 3.8%, and Q4 at 4.2%.

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Malhotra highlighted that inflation had eased from a peak of 6.2% in October 2024, declining steadily in November and December due to falling vegetable prices. For FY25, the RBI expects CPI inflation to average 4.8%, with further moderation anticipated in FY26, assuming normal monsoon conditions.

Economic Survey and inflation risks

The Economic Survey for 2024-25, released earlier in January, projected that food inflation would soften in the final