India to validate its own AI model for weather forecasting after monsoon

India plans to validate its indigenous artificial intelligence (AI) weather forecasting model after the monsoon season to assess its accuracy and reliability.The evaluation will compare AI-based predictions with actual rainfall and climate data, India Meteorological Department (IMD) director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told Mint. If successful, the model could improve early warnings, disaster preparedness, and agricultural planning nationwide, he said, adding that AI systems would analyze large historical weather datasets and real-time observations to detect patterns.The initiative will complement India’s Bharat Forecasting System (BharatFS)—a high-resolution weather prediction system launched in May 2025, operating on a 6-km grid, designed to improve forecasts for monsoon, cyclones and extreme weather events.

A high-resolution model can provide better guidance for weather predictions and extremes at the district and block levels, which are typically 12 km or more.Predicting the behaviour of the southwest monsoon is a major challenge for weather scientists due to the complex interaction of global and regional climatic factors. Climate patterns such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Indian Ocean Dipole and the Madden–Julian Oscillation play a crucial role in shaping rainfall trends over India.

Changes in sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean can significantly alter wind patterns and moisture flow towards the subcontinent.“In addition, local weather systems and growing climate variability have made it increasingly difficult to accurately predict the distribution and intensity of rainfall well in advance. We have been using AI-based models in weather forecasting for some time now,”