India unlikely to halt Russian oil imports abruptly despite Trump's deal claim
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. New Delhi: US President Donald Trump has claimed that India has agreed to stop Russian oil purchases as part of a long-pending bilateral trade deal, but analysts and refiners said that an immediate, abrupt halt is unlikely.
India is likely to continue importing around 1.2 million barrels per day of Russian oil in the next two-three months, with bookings already made for the period. A gradual decline would be the way to curb imports, rather than an immediate halt, said an executive with a refinery on the condition of anonymity.
Russian suppliers are offering discounts of up to $12 per barrel currently, the executive added. "The India–US trade deal announced on 2 February is unlikely to result in a near-term reduction in India’s Russian crude imports.
Russian volumes remain largely locked in for the next 8–10 weeks and continue to be economically critical for India’s complex refining system, supported by deep discounts on Urals relative to ICE Brent. Imports are expected to stay broadly stable in the 1.1–1.3 mbd range through Q1 and early Q2, with any recent moderation offset by higher Middle East (West Asian) inflows rather than a structural shift away from Russian barrels," said Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst, refining & modeling at global ship tracking firm Kpler.
He added that although refiners are technically capable of operating without Urals grade of crude from Russia, a rapid disengagement would be commercially challenging and politically sensitive, making any policy-driven recalibration gradual rather than immediate. Queries emailed to the Union minister of petroleum and natural gas, Indian Oil Corporation Ltd, Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd, Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd,
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