Innovation in EVs seen denting copper demand growth potential

economictimes.indiatimes.com:

copper content, changes that could limit demand growth for the metal as the next generation of electric vehicles (EVs) hits the road, industry analysts say. The strong ramp-up in sales for EVs, led by growth in China, means copper demand will continue to grow for the remainder of the decade, but innovation in EVs has emerged as a limiting factor, according to two recent forecasts. Copper has been seen as a green-energy transition play, in part because of the wiring needed for electric cars.

EVs can use as much as 80 kgs (176 pounds) of copper, four times the amount used in a typical combustion engine vehicle. In a report this week, Goldman Sachs said EVs accounted for two-thirds of the global demand growth in copper last year. But EV and battery makers have found ways to cut weight and costs that also mean less copper is needed per vehicle, Goldman Sachs and consultancy CRU Group said separately.

CRU Group lowered its estimate for copper usage in an average EV to 51-56 kgs between this year and 2030. That was down from its previous forecast of 65-66 kgs over the same period. Goldman Sachs estimated copper in an average EV would fall to 65 kgs per vehicle by 2030 compared with an estimate of 73 kgs last year.

Both cited a chain of engineering changes intended to improve range, reduce weight and bolster efficiency of EVs that will have the cumulative effect of cutting copper content. «It may be the first crack in the story on the demand side,» CRU analyst Robert Edwards said. «Some of the projections out there have been very aggressive in terms of potential green energy demand (for copper).» The engineering changes include shifting to more compact batteries where cells do not have to be wired into modules, using thinner