Interest rate hikes, jobs forecast, commercial property death spiral, equity-risk premium worries

investmentnews.com:

Another Monday, another week full of important figures and decisions that could affect your clients’ investment decisions.

Has the Fed managed a soft landing? Forecasts suggest that job creation in the U.S. could have decelerated again in July, which might bolster arguments for the Federal Reserve to maintain steady interest rates this fall.

On Friday, the Department of Labor is predicted to announce that the U.S. economy added 184,000 jobs in July, a decrease from June’s 209,000, as per Reuters’ poll of economists. The unemployment rate is projected to stay at 3.6%, while the month-over-month average hourly wage increase is anticipated to slow down to 0.3% from June’s 0.4%.

The job market has shown resilience throughout the year despite the Fed raising interest rates to two-decade highs. However, June’s hiring figures, which were cooler than expected, broke the trend of several months of surpassing expectations. Both investors and economists will closely monitor whether this deceleration continues.

The employment stats will also be scrutinized by the Federal Reserve. The central bank has increased interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 5.25% to 5% just this week. The market is split on whether this hike will be the cycle’s last, and Fed Chair Jay Powell made it clear in this week’s meeting that the decision about a potential September rate hike is still in the air. A robust report this month could bolster arguments for further rate hikes, while a disappointing one could dampen the enthusiasm for further tightening.

Mortgage costs are already at their highest since 2008 for the Brits, and most pundits are predicting 25 or even 50 basis point hike this 3rd August. Economists and money markets are