Invading Taiwan would be a logistical minefield for China

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fire. American and Taiwanese researchers who have studied PLA logistics think they have identified some weaknesses. They include a shortage of heavy-equipment transporters, over-reliance on roads and railways (which can be easily targeted) and small numbers of logistics personnel assigned to combat units, according to Joshua Arostegui and J.R.

Sessions, two Pentagon analysts. Having centralised military logistics since 2016, the PLA would also have to move much more materiel to front-line units in the run-up to an invasion, potentially tipping its hand. It is unclear if there is sufficient storage and other logistics infrastructure for that materiel in urban areas along the coast opposite Taiwan, says Chieh Chung of Taiwan’s National Policy Foundation think-tank.

The PLA air force might struggle to sustain combat operations longer than two weeks, says Lonnie Henley, a China specialist at America’s Defence Intelligence Agency until 2019. He doubts that it has sufficient maintenance capacity, spare engines or fully-trained pilots, noting that its biggest exercises usually involve about 200 sorties over five days. A major American air campaign entails 1,000 to 1,500 sorties per day over several weeks.

Mr Xi and senior PLA commanders have recently acknowledged that improvements are needed. At a military-logistics conference in 2021, General Zhang Youxia, a vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission, spoke of the need to address “shortcomings and weaknesses". In October 2022, the defence ministry denounced “peace paralysis" among logistics personnel who had prioritised “daily life" over combat readiness.