KKR says China's real estate correction may only be halfway done
BEIJING — China's real estate troubles are likely far from over and industry problems need to be addressed quickly if overall GDP growth is to pick up significantly, according to a report released Thursday by global investment firm KKR.
That's one of the two key takeaways from a recent trip to China by the firm's head of global and macro asset allocation, Henry H. McVey. It was his fourth visit in just over a year.
«A fundamentally overbuilt real estate industry needs to be addressed — and quickly,» he said in the report, which counts Changchun Hua, KKR's chief economist for Greater China, among the co-authors.
«Second, confidence must be restored to drive savings back down,» McVey said, noting that would spur consumers and businesses to spend on upgrading to higher quality products, as Chinese authorities have promoted.
Real estate and related sectors once accounted for about one fifth or more of China's economy, depending on the breadth of analysts' calculations. The property industry has slumped in the last few years after Beijing's crackdown on developers' high reliance on debt for growth.
Based on comparisons to housing corrections in the U.S., Japan and Spain, China's «housing market correction may be just halfway complete» in terms of its depth, the KKR report said.
«Both price and volume must come under pressure to finish the cleansing cycle,» the report said. «To date, though, it has largely been a contraction in volume.»
While KKR's report didn't provide much detail on expectations for specific real estate policy, the authors said more action by Beijing to improve China's real estate sector «could materially shift investor perception.»
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