
Mapping the fallout: Which Indian sectors face risks from the West Asia war?
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.Two months into the West Asia war, a conflict that triggered the world's greatest energy crisis, second- and third-order effects are surfacing everywhere, from falling fertilizer output and shortage of Coke cans to rising condom prices. This is a grim reminder of how deeply economic activity is tethered to crude oil and its derivatives.Beyond its role as a fuel source, crude oil serves as a vital feedstock for manufacturing over 6,000 products.
Industries as diverse as healthcare (medical-grade polymers), agriculture (nitrogen-based fertilizers), and technology (circuit board resins) are entirely dependent on petroleum derivatives. It is no surprise that India’s fertilizer production declined 24.6% year-on-year in March amid a shortage of natural gas in the country.
As many as 30 sectors, from ceramics to fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), are expected to be directly or indirectly affected by the energy crisis, shortages of key inputs, and ultimately price rises, an analysis by Crisil showed.
The analysis of the economic impact of the West Asia shock, dated 10 April, assumed the impact period of the war and the return to normalcy of four to five months, an increase in input costs due to a surge in crude oil prices (around $100 in the first quarter of 2026-27 and $85-90 for the entire fiscal), and the rupee to average 92-94 per dollar during the period of disruption.
The impact will be varied, with ceramics, fertilizers, and airlines facing high impact on revenue and operating margins, while others may face low-to-medium impact. A stress test analysis by Crisil shows that the fertilizer sector faces a complex ‘high revenue impact’ scenario; urea production could drop by 70% due to gas