Market is Positioning for an “Upside Surprise,” QCP Says

cryptonews.com:

QCP Capital has expressed optimism regarding market sentiment, citing several factors that indicate a potentially bullish outlook for the market.

In a recent note, QCP pointed out that BTC futures swap points experienced a bounce off their recent lows of 10% and rallied yesterday.

This suggests that traders have been taking profits on their basis trades by closing their short futures positions.

With the right catalyst, there is a strong possibility that yields could be pushed higher, surpassing the 15% mark.

Another promising sign noted by QCP is the aggressive buying of 13-Jun calls observed today, coupled with a substantial increase in the funding rate.

This indicates that the market is positioning itself for what QCP refers to as an “upside surprise.”

It suggests that market participants are anticipating a positive development that could lead to a significant upward movement in prices.

With equity markets consistently reaching record highs for the second consecutive closing, QCP believes that an inline CPI (Consumer Price Index) print and a neutral outcome from the FOMC meeting could serve as catalysts to propel the crypto market to retest its previous highs.

QCP: We saw aggressive buying of 13-Jun calls today, coupled with a substantial increase in funding rate, indicating the market is positioning for an upside surprise. An inline CPI print and neutral FOMC outcome could propel the crypto market to retest its highs once more.…

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) June 12, 2024

In light of this structurally bullish environment, QCP presents a trade idea centered around ERKOs (Exotic Return Knockout options).

They highlight the BTC 28-Jun Call ERKO as an attractive opportunity with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio and minimal cash