




Markets to trade volatile in run-up to budget
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. The benchmark Nifty could see wild price swings when stock markets reopen on Tuesday, coinciding with the weekly expiry of index options. This comes amid divergent views on market direction in a truncated week—shortened by the Republic Day holiday on Monday—leading up to the Union budget on 1 February.
While some analysts expect the downtrend from earlier this month to continue, with the Nifty breaking below its crucial 200-day moving average amid persistent foreign portfolio investor selling and a falling rupee, others believe the benchmark is close to bottoming out and could stage a bounce. A potential rollback of punitive US tariffs on Indian imports and the Reserve Bank of India's ₹2 trillion-plus liquidity measures announced on Friday are being cited as possible triggers for a reversal. Investors will also track moves by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) this week.
FPIs sold a provisional ₹4,113.38 crore in cash on Friday, per BSE and NSE data. They also raised their cumulative bearish bets on index futures to a record 227,533 contracts, despite the extended weekend. Friday's selling has taken their cumulative net sales in the current fiscal year through 23 January to ₹1.9 trillion, per depository and exchange data.
In the previous year (FY25) their secondary share sales stood at a record high of ₹2.48 trillion. Despite mutual fund-led domestic institutional investors absorbing the FPI selling, the Nifty has fallen 5% from its record high of 26373.2 on 5 January through 25048.65 on 23 January, when it closed below its crucial 200-day moving average of 25142.77. This is seen as a bearish sign by analysts.
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