Markets will move in 2026, but behaviour will decide outcomes

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. Sachin Tendulkar, arguably the greatest batsman of all time, hit a rough patch in 2003–04. He was repeatedly getting out to deliveries outside the off stump, especially while playing the cover drive, his signature stroke.

After 13 innings without a century, he made a conscious and counter-intuitive decision in the Sydney Test of 2004: he would not play the cover drive at all. The result was an unbeaten 241 against a formidable Australian attack. His ability to suppress instinct for nearly ten hours reflected immense clarity, discipline, and mental fortitude.

The markets in 2026 may test investors in a similar way. When instinct pushes for quick reactions, it is behaviour discipline, restraint, and clarity of purpose that will decide outcomes. Markets may remain active, but investor reactions will matter more.

The past year made it clear that we are now operating in a polarised global environment, one reshaping policies, fluctuating flows, currencies, and commodities. For the first time, global reserves in gold have surpassed reserves in the US dollar, marking a structural shift in how nations perceive security and long-term value. At a time when gold has outperformed broad equity returns over a 10-year horizon, it is worth considering whether we should continue to view it solely as a hedge.

Meanwhile, new public issues have largely emerged from mid and small-cap segments. Allocating disproportionately to large caps may therefore result in a portfolio that fails to accurately represent the true breadth and depth of the markets. Interest rates too remain higher than in the pre-covid period, suggesting that the traditional approach to long-term debt investing needs re-examination.