Mexico’s tariff walls are designed to suit America’s trade policy but Uncle Sam’s command has its limits

America’s greatness, or at least the White House version of it, gets costlier for others by the day. The blow taken by India’s auto exports to Mexico, whose tariffs are set to more than double next year, could also be ascribed to that project.When Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum unveiled her plan to raise barriers in September, a shield for local industry was the stated aim, but her real anxiety was clearly a review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) due in 2026.Recall how US President Donald Trump rattled Mexico and Canada with threats within days of taking office.

In April, his ‘reciprocal tariffs’ spared them both; today, they face an effective rate of under 10%, thanks mostly to how deeply integrated that trade bloc is. With US-bound exports making up 80% of Mexico’s total, worth a third of its GDP, its vulnerability was obvious.Sheinbaum had no option but to respond to Trump’s grouse over Chinese exporters using Mexico as a launch-pad for the US market.

Before Trump could tighten the USMCA’s ‘rules of origin’ or slam US gates shut, she had to act against Asian supply chains seen as running rings around his goal of reviving American factories behind tariff walls. Whether he can bend Canada to his will is far less clear, but America’s latest National Security Strategy suggests that the US views North America as its fortress all the way to the North Pole.As an economy moulded by US demand, Mexico is plainly a special case.

Trump’s jigsaw of geopolitics, however, has other major pieces that dare not defy his contours of how they fit in. Across the Atlantic, Europe’s fear of Russia has played a role in the EU’s acceptance of a lopsided trade deal with America, a price paid for Uncle Sam’s security.