

Microfinance needs reform more than credit backstops if India wants to avert another crisis in this sector
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.India’s newly unveiled CGSMFI 2.0, a ₹20,000 crore credit guarantee scheme for microfinance, aims to revive credit flows to the stressed sector. Yet, in its current form, it only partially addresses the symptoms and largely ignores the causes. India’s microfinance sector is in downturn.
Its total loan book shrank from ₹4.4 trillion to ₹3.2 trillion between March 2024 and December 2025, with nearly 13 million borrowers exiting the system in just a year. Four consecutive quarters of negative growth underline the depth of this slowdown. Unfortunately, this is not unprecedented.
Roughly every five years, the sector enters a phase of stress, as seen in Andhra Pradesh in 2010, nationwide in 2016, eastern India in 2019-20, and now the current episode. The prevailing discourse treats each crisis as idiosyncratic, driven by local or temporary shocks. Our recent paper, ‘India’s Most Recent Microfinance Crisis: Theory, Empirics & Learnings,’ argues otherwise.
By examining lender and borrower behaviour, we show that such crises are not aberrations but recurring features of the microfinance model in place. Under it, over-lending by providers and over-leveraging by borrowers are endogenous to the credit cycle, which routinely creates a crisis. Cyclical excesses can be significantly reduced with appropriate regulatory action, but the proposed intervention addresses only post-crisis liquidity.
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