Mint Explainer | What drove China’s trillion-dollar trade surplus—and why it matters

Mint breaks down how Beijing managed this feat and what it means for India and the world economy.China’s outbound shipments have proved remarkably resilient. In the first 11 months of 2025, exports grew 5.7% even with average US tariffs at 47.5%. Sales to the US slumped 18%, but Chinese manufacturers more than made up for it elsewhere: exports to Europe climbed 9%, while shipments to Southeast Asia and Africa surged 15% and 27%, respectively.Largely, yes.

Goldman Sachs estimates that about 70% of China’s additional exports to Southeast Asia this year eventually ended up in the US, routed through third-world countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines.Imports have barely budged. November saw just a 1.9% increase as the domestic economy remained weighed down by a deep property slump, weak household balance sheets, and depressed consumer sentiment. Youth unemployment has worsened the drag.

With demand soft at home, factory activity contracted for eight straight months through November.That weakness fed directly into import volumes, and helped China build a record $1.08 trillion trade surplus over the January-November period.Because China is leaning even harder on an old playbook. The IMF has cautioned that the country’s size makes an export-first strategy risky and likely to exacerbate global trade tensions. It has urged Beijing to revive consumption, warning that growth cannot rest overwhelmingly on foreign demand.Chinese leaders publicly agree, but policy efforts have repeatedly fallen short.