Monsoon 2023 could be below normal: IMD
IMD).
This has raised concerns about the yield of kharif crops and sowing in the subsequent rabi season, said experts.
However, the weather office said that it would not change its earlier forecast of a “normal” monsoon at 96% (with an error margin of ±4%) of the long-period average (LPA).
“We are likely to record a below-normal or lower side of normal monsoon rainfall this year, but we are not changing our forecast. We had forecast that we were likely to record monsoon rain of 96% with a ±4% error margin.
We will be within that error margin,” said M Mohapatra, director general, IMD.
Though rainfall in September is likely to be normal, ranging between 91-109% of Long Period Average (LPA), August was the driest and warmest for the entire country since record-keeping began in 1901.
IMD considers rainfall in the range of 90-95% of LPA as “below normal” category, while less than 90% is considered “deficient.” Monsoon rainfall between 96% to 104% is considered “normal.”
Kharif yield loss
The deficiency in rainfall could not only damage the yield of kharif crops but also affect the subsequent sowing of winter crops.
“In addition to dampening kharif yields, deficient rainfall would have an impact on the groundwater and reservoir levels which would influence rabi sowing as well,” said Aditi Nayar, chief economist, ICRA, adding that this could have an impact on prices of crucial items like cereals, pulses and oilseeds.
“While kharif sowing is nearly complete, adequate rainfall in September is now critical for crop yields, especially after a dry spell throughout August. The trajectory of rainfall in September will also be monitored for shoring up reservoir levels and preserving soil moisture for the rabi sowing season,” said Rahul
