Nasdaq 100: Larger Top Still Intact?

investing.com:

First, our Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) updates on one of the most critical major indexes, the Nasdaq 100, will continue for 2024. Second, to those new to our work, we reviewed our forecasts since August in our last update of 2023, showing we anticipated most market moves correctly, albeit sometimes inevitably missing the finer nuance.

In that update, we noted that since the October 26, 2023, low at $14058, "The most significant “pullback,” the December 4 low, was only -2.8%. Hence, the current rally is a significant outlier that is unforeseeable when it starts. However, therefore it smells of a 5^th wave. Thus, our primary expectation is for the index to top out, as we forecasted it could almost two months ago, at $16100-660+."

On December 28, 2023, the index reached $16969 and started to decline to the January 5, $16249 low. That was the most profound and protracted correction since that October low, strongly suggesting the rally had ended. Allow us to explain with Figure 1.

Figure 1. Daily NDX chart with detailed EWP count and technical indicators

In an EWP impulse pattern, we expect a correction to the downside to unfold after five completed waves. In this case, we can count five green waves at the December 2023 high. The first warning level for the Bulls to confirm this thesis was below the blue dotted line at the previous (green) 4th wave low: $16552. The 2^nd warning was the grey level at $1641. The 3^rd warning was the orange level at $16175, the 61.80% retrace of the rally from the grey W-iv low made in November.

Thus, the question is: What kind of top are we dealing with? We already discussed this in our December update, but let's recap. Figure 1 shows the blue Wave-B (W-B) and black W-3 labels. The former