Natural Gas Traders With Storage Bets: 'Ready, Aim … (Mis)Fire?'
It was such an odd and bizarre miss, that some in the natural gas trade have just taken to calling it “a fluke” — for those wanting higher prices.
Yet, there’s a risk that the 18 billion cubic feet storage build reported by the US Energy Information Administration, or EIA, for the week ended Aug 18 — versus the 33 bcf forecast — could recur in the agency’s latest inventory report due later today, with a different set of numbers, of course.
Houston-based energy markets advisory Gelber & Associates raised this possibility in its daily note on the gas market, citing also uncertainties hereafter from Hurricane Idalia, which sent gas futures rallying 10% on Wednesday to a two-week high of $2.829.
Charts by SKCharting.com, with data powered by Investing.com
Sunil Kumar Dixit, chief technical strategist at SKCharting.com, said gas futures could aim for $3 next.
“The current bullish rebound holds above horizontal support tied to the 50-day EMA, or Exponential Moving Average, of $2.62,” Dixit said.
For further upside, he said, the front-month gas contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Henry Hub needs to clear through $2.83 to reach the swing high of $3.01, which dynamically aligns with the descending 200-day SMA, or Simple Moving Average, of $3.03.
“A decisive breakout above this zone will eventually extend the bullish momentum targeting the 100-month SMA of $3.24, followed by the 50-week EMA, dynamically positioned at $3.46.”
“Failure to clear through $3.01 will resume downward correction towards the 50-day EMA of $2.62 and extend lower to fill the runaway gap left at $2.55, as seen on a 4-hour time frame (below).”
Gelber & Associates said gas prices could swing if the EIA reports a sharply lower storage build for
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