

Next trillion dollars of India’s mcap could create more wealth than the last: Raamdeo Agrawal
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. Raamdeo Agrawal, co-founder of Motilal Oswal Financial Services, says the next trillion dollars of India’s market capitalization could create more wealth than the last. Drawing on decades of market cycles, the ace investor, speaking at the Mint Money Festival on 14 February in Mumbai, argued that compounding on a larger base, deeper participation and improving corporate profitability could make the coming decades disproportionately rewarding for patient investors.
Below are edited excerpts from the conversation. Tech accounted for nearly 30% of the index and drove the most wealth creation over the past five years. With many tech stocks now underperforming, how do you see the sector?
Until 1994–95, India didn’t really have a technology sector.
Infosys’ IPO in 1993 struggled. Then Y2K (xxx)happened, and the world turned to India to solve its software problems. Over the next 25 years, cities like Bangalore, Noida, Hyderabad and Chennai grew on the back of this opportunity.
Technology services have enjoyed a long phase of prosperity. Now we may be entering phase two. As Jensen Huang of Nvidia says, AI changes the task, not the outcome.
Coding time may shrink from days to hours, but the number of projects could multiply. If there are one million projects today, there could be ten million tomorrow. Capacity expands, and so does demand.
Companies like Infosys and TCS remain relevant. There may be adjustments over the next year or two as AI evolves, but their capabilities are growing. At the moment, the sector is facing headwinds.
In business, sectors move through headwinds and tailwinds. Banking currently has tailwinds; IT has headwinds. Active investors may choose to stay underweight.
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