Niger coup leaders blamed insecurity; conflict data paints a different picture
By Edward McAllister
DAKAR (Reuters) -When Niger's coup leader Abdourahmane Tiani announced the overthrow of President Mohamed Bazoum on television last week, he cited persistent insecurity as justification.
But an analysis of data on attacks and casualties in the country, where an Islamist insurgency has raged, shows that security was actually improving thanks to tactics used by Bazoum's government and help from French and U.S. forces.
Those tactics and that support are in jeopardy now.
Meanwhile, coups can stoke insecurity. Violence has soared in neighbouring Mali and Burkina Faso since their militaries took power promising peace and shunning former Western allies, according to data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), a U.S.-based crisis-monitoring group.
Security analysts warn that the disarray in Niger could allow groups linked to al Qaeda and Islamic State to expand their reach across West Africa's Sahel region, where they have already killed thousands and forced millions to flee. It could also hobble economic development and democratic progress in one of the world's poorest areas.
«The coup is good news for jihadist groups,» said Ibrahim Yahaya Ibrahim, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank. «The support of international forces, the stability in the capital city, all those things are now gone. It is likely that things will go bad.»
In the first six months of 2023, violent incidents in Niger decreased by nearly 40% compared to the previous six months, according to the ACLED data, which is based on reports from sources including news organisations, human rights groups and local authorities. They included fighting between the army and militants,
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