
Oil at $100: Iran war puts India’s fuel prices and inflation outlook at risk
₹60 per 14.2 kg cylinder, taking them to the highest level since 29 August 2023.According to Nomura, every $10 per barrel increase in oil prices could shave 15 basis points off India’s growth and add 50 basis points to retail inflation. With oil prices already up nearly $50 per barrel since the start of the year, the impact on India’s growth-inflation dynamics could be significant.The Iran conflict could prove more disruptive to oil markets beyond the initial price spike than the Russia-Ukraine war.
During the Ukraine war, petrol and diesel prices in India rose by ₹9-10 per litre between March and May 2022 as crude surged. As crude prices later declined from their peaks, retail price cuts followed soon after.Even then, because the disruption to global oil trade was largely limited to Russia, it took around eight to nine months for crude prices to settle below $80 per barrel.The Russia-Ukraine war also worsened India’s inflation trajectory.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose to 7.8% in April 2022 and remained elevated at 6.63% in 2022–23, well above the 5.5% recorded the previous year.The conflict involving Iran could worsen India’s inflation outlook.Retail inflation is already expected to rise to 4.0-4.2% in the first half of 2026-27, according to projections by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) made before the crisis in West Asia. The current disruptions threaten to push inflation even higher, potentially ending the Goldilocks phase of high growth and low inflation that India enjoyed through much of 2025.Catch all the Business News , Economy news , Breaking News Events andLatest News Updates on Live Mint.
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