Oil: Which Is More Likely First for US Crude - $75 or $95?
The escalation and de-escalation of the Israel-Hamas war has led to on-again, off-again risk premium for oil
The three weeks of swings have been enough to exasperate some of the most hard-boiled crude traders.
After another three tumbles and two modest rebounds this week, the question, at least over the direction of a barrel of U.S. West Texas Intermediate was which will come first — $75 or $95?
Truth be told, it isn’t something anyone can answer at the moment; not when the momentum of the war is deciding for the larger part the momentum of the market.
WTI hovered at $84.50 per barrel at the time of writing, after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated his commitment to a bigger ground assault on Gaza, following an overnight raid on the northern frontier of the territory.
That was after a day when signs of a potential de-escalation saw traders dialing down bets that the conflict would draw in other Middle Eastern countries and disrupt oil supplies in the crude-rich region.
Several diplomatic missions to Israel are also working 24/7 in delaying — or preventing altogether — Jerusalem’s planned no-holds-barred ground offensive against Gaza as negotiators try to secure the release of some 200 Israeli hostages held by Hamas.
Amid all these, you have daily economic data out of the US, China, and Europe — three of the world’s biggest oil-consuming centers — along with the incessant chatter of Federal Reserve officials, which can send the US dollar and Treasury yields spiking or plunging at any time; and weekly petroleum consumption/builds data out of the United States.
The chances of correctly calling the half-time score at the next Super Bowl is probably higher than reading oil’s tea leaves accurately now to
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