One in two El Nino events could be extreme by 2050, study finds
El Nino events could be extreme by 2050 if current trends in greenhouse gas emissions continue, a new study has found. El Nino, a weather pattern known for triggering warmer extremes like heatwaves and floods, is known to raise sea surface temperatures, while its counterpart La Nina leads to cooling effects. Both are phases of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate driver.
Multiple studies have provided evidence that a consistently warming climate favours more frequent and intense El Nino events, which are known to fuel extreme weather events.
In this study, conducted by researchers including those from the University of Colorado Boulder, US, used computer models to stimulate El Nino events over the past 21,000 years — the peak of Earth's last Ice Age, one of the planet's coldest periods.
It was found that as the Earth's climate warmed since then, El Nino events increasingly became more frequent and intense.
The model also predicted that if greenhouse gas emissions continue at current rates, by 2050, one in every two El Nino events could be an extreme.
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