Opinion: The Future of Crypto Is Boring - And Bright
Crypto markets still have many puzzles, but they are beginning to reveal their secrets. The last few months of chaos show what Bitcoin and other crypto assets are good for: They are advanced tools of globalization, luxury goods for complex, well-functioning markets — not protections against the depredations of hostile governments.
One common story, especially popular in libertarian circles, has been that when inflation runs rampant and governments confiscate private wealth, crypto will be a vital refuge. It increasingly appears that this story is wrong.
In February, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau froze the bank accounts of many of the truckers that descended on Ottawa. That action was soon reversed, but the message was clear: The wealth of political opponents is vulnerable. Furthermore, payment providers halted the flow of donated funds to the truckers. You might expect that crypto would have been used as an alternative, but it didn't happen.
Since that time, the rate of price inflation in the U.S. rose to 7.9%, much higher than was generally anticipated a year ago. Given the turmoil in oil and grain markets, European inflation rates also seem poised to rise. Yet both Bitcoin and Ether prices are down radically since November and more since the start of March.
Russia's attack on Ukraine likely has increased the chance of a wider war, perhaps including nuclear weapons. Yet this too has not operated to the advantage of crypto.
Wealth confiscations have been applied to various Russian oligarchs, most of all in Europe, and those policies seem to be popular. Yet one recent crypto price hike instead seems to be the result of a relatively tolerant executive order from President Joe Biden on crypto regulation.
So rather than
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