Peace talks: America and Iran must strike a new balance in their standoff—it’s not an impossible mission

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.A week is a long time in geopolitics. Consider the Hormuz flip in the theatre of economic warfare. Last Monday, after peace talks failed, America sought to choke Iran’s economy with an armed blockade of Iranian ports.

On Friday, after a US-pushed Israel agreed to a regionwide pause in the war they jointly began, Tehran declared that strait open to all traffic for the ceasefire period via a sealane that hugs Iran’s coast. The White House began to wax victorious and energy markets eased on signs of a resolution in sight. But by Saturday, Tehran had clamped the Strait of Hormuz shut again, even firing at a couple of Indian-flagged vessels.

Iran’s shots rang out loud and clear, as if to restore its control of oil and gas supply from the Gulf and show its grip on global prices. A big let-down, no doubt. Yet, within a span of seven days, we may well have reached a pivotal point in West Asia.

Both sides seem keen to clinch some sort of truce extension. With neither backing down from maximalist positions, however, it is US power that faces a moment of truth.If the US trade blockade of Iran was meant to be a game changer, Tehran’s refusal to buckle suggests it was not. The two are still stuck in a ‘gnash equilibrium,’ a scenario where neither can gain by acting on its own.

The Islamic Republic might have deemed an economic squeeze endurable, just as it endured earlier forms of ‘maximum pressure.’ And if its dilatory tactics are aimed at turning time against a US leader who faces an electoral test by year-end, this ploy risks proving costly. For everyone’s sake, their own included, both battle-hardy players need to back down and find a new balance that both can live with. On the nuclear standoff,