The year 2023 has been challenging for industrial metals, especially platinum, palladium, and nickel which have seen declines of -15.57%, -30.76%, and -31.76% respectively since the beginning of the year.
This decline can be attributed primarily to the Federal Reserve's hawkish monetary policy, which has led to a strong U.S. dollar and increased U.S. bond yields.
These factors have created an unfavorable environment for the commodities market. However, looking at the longer term, commodities might face upward pressure due to global shortages driven by the growth of eletromobility and renewable energy sources, which are increasing demand in these sectors.
Consequently, it's worth considering the possibility of long positions that could benefit from a potential reversal in the Fed's monetary policy.
In recent months, platinum prices have been characterized by uncertainty regarding their direction, resulting in a consolidation phase within the $890-$1000 range. In the short term, the stronger dollar is acting as a headwind for buyers, leading to a test of the lower boundary of this sideways trend.
If the selling pressure continues to prevail, the next target will be the 2022 lows, situated slightly above $800. It's important to note that today's U.S. inflation data can have a significant impact on the valuation of metals. Higher-than-expected inflation readings could further support the bearish scenario.
In the medium and long term, the shortage of platinum could play a crucial role in the potential development of an upward trend. According to the World Platinum Council, shortages in 2023 may reach up to one million ounces, driven primarily by a 27% increase in demand while supply remains unchanged.
As for nickel, there's a
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