Posthaste: This Canadian housing market just had its worst year since 2000
2023 was a rough year forreal estate, but some Canadian housing markets fared worse than others, according to early data.
Take Montreal. Cumulative sales here for the year were down 14.3 per cent from 2022, making it the worst year for the Montreal housing market since 2000, said National Bank economist Daren King.
Seasonally adjusted home sales fell by 4.2 per cent from November to December. “As a result, sales are at a level so low that it has only been seen during the last two recessions (2008-2009 financial crisis and pandemic) in the last 20 years,” said King.
Other major markets also suffered double-digit declines for the year, but improved in December, managing a rebound in sales that some observers say could signal a turning point.
While Toronto home sales were down 12 per cent in 2023 from the year before, December sales bounced up 11.5 per cent over the same month last year.
Calgary sales performed even better, up 13.8 per cent in December from the same month last year. Sales for the year were down 8 per cent from 2022.
The warm December weather may have played a role, but a recent fall in mortgage rates suggests housing markets will continue to improve, said Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics.
Mortgage rates fell at the end of year, with the lowest available five-year fixed rate now at 5.4 per cent, 60 basis points lower than a recent peak in October.
Brown said even with the slight rebound in bond yields recently, it is feasible that fixed rates will continue to drop closer to 5 per cent.
December also brought a big improvement in sales-to-new listing ratios, he said. “Our assumption is that house prices will stabilize by March.”
There are risks, however, and a big one is
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