Powell’s second-to-last meeting previews an increasingly divided Fed

Stephen Miran has dissented in favor of easier policy at every meeting since joining the board last September. Before that, he served as a top economic adviser to Trump.Christopher Waller, who also dissented at the most recent gathering in January, is seen as a candidate to dissent again after February’s unexpected drop in payrolls reinforced his argument that a weak labor market is near a tipping point.Michelle Bowman cited the labor-market report as evidence the economy “could use some support from our policy rate” in a television interview two weeks ago.

In December, she penciled in three cuts for 2026, more than most of her colleagues. Trump last year named Bowman as the Fed’s vice chair for bank supervision.Trump has repeatedly bashed Powell, whom he named chair eight years ago, for not cutting rates more aggressively and demanded last week that the central bank lower rates immediately, ahead of its scheduled meeting.The standard advice for a central bank facing an oil shock is to look past it, concluding that the hit to growth and the boost to inflation roughly cancel out.

But that advice assumes the price bump will be short-lived and that people still believe the Fed will get inflation back to normal.Some former Fed officials questioned whether the economic case supports a rate cut this week. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure was already running above 3% before the war in Iran sent oil prices sharply higher, adding a new source of price pressure on top of tariffs that may not have fully passed through.“To dissent when your base measure of inflation is above 3% and has been trending in the wrong direction would signal that you’re OK with inflation,” said Jim Bullard, who dissented several times as president of