Q4 Results Preview | Telecom cos to report moderate growth on ARPU upgrades; Bharti Airtel, Jio to lead the pack

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₹211 (compared to ₹208 in 3QFY24) driven by robust 7.2 million MBB subscriber addition and improving postpaid subscriber penetration. ‘’Bharti remains our top pick as we expect a structural uptrend in industry ARPU driven by future investment needs – the industry requires an ARPU of ₹275-305 in the next 3-4 years,'' said JM Financials.

Bharti is the biggest beneficiary of higher tariffs given the sticky and premium quality of its subs, ensuring that tariff hikes flow through to ARPU. ‘’We build in 2.5 per cent sequential growth in India wireless business revenue to ₹222 billion, and 2.4 per cent rise in EBITDA to ₹122 billion,'' said the brokerage.

Reliance Jio’s strong subscriber addition trend is likely to continue in Q4FY24 driven by aggressive push of its Jio Bharat phone. The telecom giant is expected to report 10.5 million net subscriber addition in the January-March quarter.

TRAI’s data showed 4.2 million subscriber addition for Jio in January 2024. This will be the eighth consecutive quarter of net subs addition, ranging between 5-11 million per quarter since 1QFY23.

Further, ARPU is likely to improve by 0.4 per cent sequentially to ₹182.5 in 4QFY24 (compared to 181.7 in 3QFY24). ‘’Hence, we expect 2.5 per cent QoQ growth in Jio’s standalone revenue to ₹262 billion, with EBITDA likely to grow 2.8 per cent QoQ to ₹138 billion,'' said JM Financials.Milestone Alert!
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