



Rate cuts are done. Liquidity is now the real challenge for RBI
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. After the Union Budget, all eyes are now on India’s monetary policy committee (MPC) ahead of its final rate decision for this fiscal year (FY26). After repo rate cuts totalling 125 basis points (bps), the rate-cutting cycle is expected to now conclude, and policymakers may shift focus from the cost of funds to the quantum of liquidity.
The MPC is focused on growth and inflation, both of which are rebounding. Our growth nowcasting model, which tracks 40 high-frequency indicators, shows economic momentum strengthened to around 7% in the December quarter, which is 30bps higher than the model’s estimate for the September quarter. Domestic demand has firmed—albeit unevenly—with improvements across vehicle sales, industrial production and credit.
Growth is expected to be stable, though goods exports are challenged by US tariffs. Free-trade deals and a weaker rupee should aid exporter earnings amid risks. Slower fiscal consolidation will keep growth steady in FY27, supported by vibrant central and state capex that bode well for the medium-term growth prospects.
Overall, GDP growth in FY27 is expected in the 6.5–7% range. The RBI will also likely maintain its GDP forecasts ahead of the new GDP data, which will be released at the end of February with a revised base year and methodology. Meanwhile, inflation is rebounding from unusually subdued levels as favourable base effects fade.
The December MPC meeting followed a downside surprise in CPI inflation, which created space for a rate cut. However, inflation for the December quarter averaged 30bps above the RBI’s projection. Having already used that window, the MPC will now focus on inflation’s forward profile.
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