RBI likely to hit pause in April amid data resets in India

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25% at its April meeting, as the newly-adopted inflation measurement series is unlikely to significantly shift the price trajectory, while the central bank also awaits the release of revamped GDP data on 27 February, economists said.

The statistics ministry on Thursday released the first inflation print under the new series, with 2024 as its base year, for January 2026, which came in at 2.75%. While comparable inflation figures are not available for the previous months due to statistical limitations, an assessment of month-on-month movement in Consumer Price Index (CPI), also released on Thursday, shows rising price pressures—similar to the trajectory that was already playing out even under the erstwhile 2012 series.

Data shows that CPI rose 0.35% month-on-month in January 2026, compared to 0.09% in December 2025 and 0.26% in November 2025. “It is important to note that the new base and old base are not directly comparable because the basket and data sources have changed," Saurabh Garg, secretary at the ministry of statistics and programme implementation, told Mint.

“Therefore, the index itself, rather than the inflation numbers, is the correct metric to compare on a month-on-month basis." However, as the month-on-month data shows, while the base year and methodology are new, the implications for inflation management and, hence, monetary policy, appear to be similar, as of now. By the time the RBI Monetary Policy Committee meets in April, it will have inflation data under the new series for one more month (February), due on 12 March.